Abstract:
Cholera, a globally prevalent waterborne disease, is closely monitored in Kenya as
part of the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy. Understanding regional
variations in cholera risk factors and trends is crucial, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This study aimed to construct a risk map for cholera outbreaks in Nairobi County, based on
the spatial-temporal dynamics of environmental and socio-cultural factors, Water,
Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) conditions, and historical cases reported between 2009 and
2019.
METHODOLOGY
We retrospectively analyzed historical cholera cases in Nairobi, employing spatial
analysis to map the spatiotemporal variations in factors associated with cholera outbreaks. A
cross-sectional descriptive research design was adopted to investigate the relationship
between WASH conditions and cholera outbreaks. Stratified random sampling selected 399
respondents from all 85 wards in Nairobi County. We employed descriptive statistics
(percentages and frequencies) and inferential statistics (Chi-square) to assess variable
relationships.
RESULTS
Cholera cases are concentrated in densely populated, especially informal, settlements.
Population size significantly correlated with cholera cases (p-value=0.03). Dumping sites in
Nairobi emerged as potential cholera sources within residential areas, with the vicinity
showing a slight association with reported cases. Rainfall patterns and humidity levels across
Nairobi County also influenced cholera risk.
CONCLUSIONS
Areas within 400 meters of rivers and sewage lines faced elevated cholera risk. Most
cases occurred in slum or regular residential areas. Proximity to dumping sites increased the
risk of cholera outbreaks. These findings offer valuable insights for cholera prevention and
control strategies in Nairobi County.
