Findings on Modelling Carbon Dioxide Concentration Scenarios in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region before and during COVID-19

Abstract

The increasing concentration of GHG in the atmosphere has been verified as the most important cause of global warming. Carbon (IV) oxide (CO2) is the most important of them all and is the greatest contributor to global warming. CO2 is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources, of interest, of CO2 in the study area are mining activities, transport system, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. A statistical modelling approach was applied. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) secondary data were used. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario; business-as-usual scenario; and the optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in CO2 concentration by about 50.3 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as- usual, and the optimistic scenarios gives CO2 concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 415.0 ppm, and 360.1 ppm respectively on December 31st 2021. Also, the CO2 concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. This research helps paint the picture, to the policy makers, of the relationship between energy sources and CO2 emissions. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, equipment and machine maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover. Keywords – economic recovery, forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, energy-intensive