Developing A Techno-Economic Modelling Tool for Small-Scale Utility Solar PV Technology for Quantifying Environmental Impacts

Abstract

Globally, attention has been focused on pollution and exhaustion of fossil fuels allied to conventional energy sources. In contrast, non-conventional energy/renewable energy sources have always been considered clean and environmentally friendly. The non-conventional (renewable) are being preferred because they are believed to be more environmentally friendly. Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs), especially Solar Photovoltaics, have seen many plants being constructed to supplement the grid or alternatives for those far from the grid. Solar Photovoltaics plants occupy large tracts of land, which would have been used for other economic activities for revenue generation such as agriculture, forestry, and tourism in archaeological sites. The negative impacts slow down the application of Solar PV. Still, a modeling tool that can quickly and quantitatively assess the effects in monetary form would accelerate the Solar PV application. This thesis presents a developed modeling tool that determines not only the techno-economic impacts but also the environmental impacts in monetary form for one to be able to assess the viability of a plant in a given region. Solar-PV based Power and Environmental Cost Assessment (SPECA) model was developed to help in the following ways: (i) understanding of Solar PV based power generation and its interactions with the resource inputs, the private costs, externalities, external costs, and hence the environmental and social-economic impacts over the lifespan of the plant (ii) aiding investors of Solar PV with a tool which has a clear graphical and user interface for detection of the main drivers of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) (iii) creating an enabling environment for decision-makers aided by a visual SPECA modeling tool which takes into account the financial viability and the environmental impacts of Solar PV. SPECA is a sizing tool for techno-economic analysis. It is mathematically based, capturing all the life cycle costs and their associated ecological burdens. The source codes of the SPECA model have been written in Visual Basic programming, while the Database was developed using the Standard Querry Language (SQL). The modeling tool provides a friendly Graphical user interface where the user can input the required data. In general, SPECA will be of great use to investors and policymakers of Solar PV systems for drawing alternatives and conclusions based on the best compromise. The model developed will be useful, especially in addressing the trade-offs between environmental impacts and financial impacts, which aim to improve the quality and transparency in the decision-making during the deployment of Solar PV. The quantification of the social-environmental effects of Solar PV will permit for cost accounting assessment of the unforeseen cost incurred when using them for electricity generation. The SPECA modeling tool presents the LCOE, the Levelized Total Cost of Energy (LTCOE), and the Levelized Externality Cost of Energy (LECOE). LECOE is the indirect cost incurred due to the environmental and social impacts where the installation of solar PV is made. In Lodwar, the SPECA tool yields an LCOE of $11.149, while the LTCOE value is $11.214 resulting in a $LECOE of $0.065. The contribution of LCOE and LECOE to the actual cost of electricity is 95.3% and 4.7%, respectively. LECOE for Gatarakwa forms 4.06% of LTCOE while LCOE forms 95.94% of LTCOE. The SPECA tool further reveals that areas with high species yield a higher LECOE than regions with low species concentration. The indirect costs (LECOE) represent the socio-environmental burden borne by society to restore the environment. SPECA modeling tool permits for cost accounting of the indirect costs incurred while generating electricity from solar PV by including LECOE. Accordingly, LTCOE is, therefore, the true cost of energy. Finally, while attempts were made to incorporate all the relevant information about the externalities of Solar PV, not all essential aspects of solar PV were included due to scarce data, anticipated model complications, and the existing knowledge gaps. The significant shortcomings of the SPECA tool are listed, and the recommendations for future work are made.