Role of Electoral Process on Political Stability in East African Community States

Abstract

The general objective of the study was to examine the role of electoral process on political stability in East African Community States. In order to achieve the general objective this study was guided by the following specific objectives: to determine the role of pre-election phase processes on political stability in East African Community States, to assess the role of election phase processes on political stability in East African Community States, to evaluate the role of post-election phase processes on political stability in East African Community States and to find out the moderating role of political leadership on the relationship between electoral processes and political stability in East Africa Community States. The research design adopted in the study was a cross sectional survey design. The target population consisted of 123 individuals working within the electoral commissions of different EAC countries and the EAC Legislative Assembly and a sample of 94 was drawn. The study adopted a positivism philosophy. A stratified sampling technique was used to gather for proper representation. Data collection instrument used was a questionnaire. Quantitative data was analyzed statistically yielding frequencies, percentages, means and standard deviations, while inferential statistical tools such as correlation and regression were used to determine and explain variable relations by use of SPSS Version 21 program. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test for significant differences and data were presented in the form of tables, figures and charts. The study conducted various tests including multi collinearity, autocorrelation tests, normality test and heteroscedasticity tests. The study found out that there was a positive and significant relationship between Pre-election phase processes, Election phase processes, Postelection phase processes and political stability. The constant term is 0.102 dependent variable when all the independent variables are equal to zero. The constant term has a p-value of 0.915 which is greater than 0.05. This implies that the constant term is insignificant. The multiple regression on the role of electoral process on political stability is thus an equation through the origin. If all the independent variables take on the values of zero, there would be zero political stability in East Africa states. The t statistics helps in determining the relative importance of each variable in the model. As a guide regarding useful predictors, we look for t values well below -0.5 or above +0.5. In this case the significant variable level of the variables was as follows; election phase (0.000 less than P-value 0.05) then it was followed by pre-election phase (p=0.021) and lastly the post-election phase (p=0.185), respectively. The entire null hypotheses were rejected. The study concludes that Pre-election phase processes, Election phase processes and Post-election phase processes have a positive and significant effect on political stability. The study recommends East African Community States leaders should consider the many factors involved in a complex and dynamic situation before making decisions on electoral processes that will influence the effectiveness, efficiency and ultimately the political stability of individual partner states. Further the study recommends a future studies introducing other moderating or an intervening variable in their models.