Moderating Role of Project Leadership on the Influence of Complexity on Success of Public Infrastructural Megaprojects in Kenya

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the moderating role of project leadership on the influence of project complexity on success of public infrastructural megaprojects in Kenya. This was operationalized through a set of four specific objectives with human behavior, ambiguity, system behavior, project leadership and project success being the main variables. The need for this study arose from the thesis that complexity is the main cause of waste and failure that results in infrastructural megaprojects being delivered over budget, behind schedule, with benefit shortfalls; and that leadership skill is the most important for successful navigation of this complexity. The study was designed as multiple-method research, based on virtual constructionist ontology recognizing that complexity is the mid-point between order and disorder. A census survey of 124 respondents based on 31 completed public infrastructural megaprojects was conducted using three interlinked questionnaires. Quantitative data analysis was conducted using both descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data analysis was done through scenario mapping and triangulation. Almost all the projects surveyed utilized some form of fixed price contract with a consequence that more of these projects were delivered within budget than within schedule. Whereas the context in which public infrastructural megaprojects are implemented reflects considerable uncertainty, emergence, dependency and rapid change, the current project leadership is largely goal-oriented. In fact, analysis of individual behaviors revealed a project culture characterized by internal focus and stability. The study showed that in practice, stakeholder satisfaction was not managed as a key project objective and in some cases it was considered as a front-end activity that was only important during project planning. Consistent with the developments in the success school of project management, the study showed that project management success had no significant relationship with product and organizational success. Inferentially, the study confirmed that complexity had significant influence on success of public infrastructural megaprojects (R2=58.3% with P=0.000). Individually, all the dimensions of project complexity had significant negative influence on success of public infrastructural megaprojects, with human behavior having the greatest influence (R2=0.463 with P<0.025). However, ambiguity dimension ceased to be significant when the complexity dimensions were combined into one model. Interestingly, when project leadership was introduced into the combined model, human behavior completely ceased to predict success but the interaction effect of project leadership with both system behavior and ambiguity remained significant (R2=72.7% with P=0.000). On its own, project leadership had significant positive influence on project success (R2=0.48 with P=0.000) in such a way that success rate increased as leadership style tended towards complexity leadership. In effect, the findings underscored the significance and application of complexity leadership theory, structural contingency theory and complex adaptive systems theory, in the delivery of public infrastructural megaprojects. Consequently, in order to navigate the complexity inherent in these projects, this study recommends adoption of a leadership style anchored on both complexity science and context. Such leadership is expected to be long on both generative and adaptive behaviors.