Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Productivity in Indian Crop Agriculture: An Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

The current study assessed the climate change impa cts on land productivity of major food and non-food grain crops in India. We compiled panel data for 30 years (1980-2009) using fifteen crops across thirteen agriculture int ensive states. The value of production for each crop is estimated by farm harvest price (at co nstant prices, 1993-1994). Aggregate value of production on per hectare land is regresse d with different socio-economic and climatic factors using the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) produ ction function model. Estimates based on Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and linear regression and correlated Panels Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) (Prais-Winsten) e stimation indicate that land productivity decreases with increase in annual aver age maximum temperature. The study concludes that Indian policymakers need to increase more irrigation facilities and fertilizers for cultivation. Land productivity is p ositively associated with irrigation area, number of pump set and application of fertilizers o n per hectare land. In brief, more irrigation facilities; recommended use of fertilize r; more investment in infrastructure; participation of more literate population in agricu ltural activities; government expenditure on agricultural and allied sectors, rur al development, irrigation and flood control would be useful to mitigate the negative ef fect of climate change on agriculture and improve agricultural productivity (land product ivity). Finally, our projected results based on simulation technique showed that climate c hange would cause a decline in land productivity by 48.63 percent by the year 2100 and loss of farmers’ income in India. Keywords: Climatic change, Cobb-Douglas production function m odel, India, Land productivity, State-wise panel.