Abstract:
The current study assessed the climate change impa
cts on land productivity of major
food and non-food grain crops in India. We compiled
panel data for 30 years (1980-2009)
using fifteen crops across thirteen agriculture int
ensive states. The value of production for
each crop is estimated by farm harvest price (at co
nstant prices, 1993-1994). Aggregate
value of production on per hectare land is regresse
d with different socio-economic and
climatic factors using the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) produ
ction function model. Estimates
based on Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and linear
regression and correlated Panels
Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) (Prais-Winsten) e
stimation indicate that land
productivity decreases with increase in annual aver
age maximum temperature. The study
concludes that Indian policymakers need to increase
more irrigation facilities and
fertilizers for cultivation. Land productivity is p
ositively associated with irrigation area,
number of pump set and application of fertilizers o
n per hectare land. In brief, more
irrigation facilities; recommended use of fertilize
r; more investment in infrastructure;
participation of more literate population in agricu
ltural activities; government
expenditure on agricultural and allied sectors, rur
al development, irrigation and flood
control would be useful to mitigate the negative ef
fect of climate change on agriculture
and improve agricultural productivity (land product
ivity). Finally, our projected results
based on simulation technique showed that climate c
hange would cause a decline in land
productivity by 48.63 percent by the year 2100 and
loss of farmers’ income in India.
Keywords:
Climatic change, Cobb-Douglas production function m
odel, India, Land
productivity, State-wise panel.
