Simulation of the future electricity demand and supply in Kenya using the long range energy alternative planning system

Abstract

Power scenarios for Kenya are developed and simulated in this study using the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) for the period 2012-2030. The scenarios represent how the sector may unfold in the future to fully satisfy the demand, mainly taking into consideration; energy security, cost of power generation and the environmental impact. They Include: Reference Scenario (RS) which represents the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) with a supply mix of hydro, geothermal, nuclear, thermal (Medium Speed Diesel and gas turbine), wind and coal power plants. Nuclear Scenario (NS) which represents a clean technology scenario with a supply mix of hydro, geothermal, nuclear, thermal (gas turbine plants only) and wind power plants. Coal Scenario (CS) which represents a carbon intensive pathway with a supply mix of coal, geothermal, thermal (medium speed diesel and gas turbine), hydro and wind power plants. Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) with a supply mix of hydro, geothermal, wind, pumped hydro storage and small renewable plants including hydro, solar PV and biomass plants as non-dispatchable plants. The results show that the most competitive scenario in terms of cost is the coal scenario which has a Net Present Value (NPV) of $30,052.67 million but on the flip side has the most Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. On the other hand, the renewable scenario has the least GHG emissions but it’s the most expensive scenario to implement with an NPV of $ 30,733.07 million. The nuclear scenario offers a good substitute for the renewable scenario in terms of low emissions and lower costs at an NPV $30,402.57 million, but Kenya does not have known stocks of uranium so it would solely rely on importation of the fuel rods and there would be need to address the issues of the nuclear waste and public acceptance of the nuclear plants. The reference scenario which is the government’s plan has moderate costs at an NPV of $30,225.87million, but has the weight of the nuclear plants as well. These leaves the coal and renewable energy scenario as the two most suitable paths for Kenya, since they are both promising in regard to the energy security, and the coal plants can be improved to ensure that the emissions are reduced through the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology. Further research is therefore recommended to determine the most cost effective scenario between the coal scenario with CCS and renewable energy scenario.