Developing a model for estimating the construction period of a road project: A survey of road construction projects in Kenya from year 2002 to year 2011

Abstract

This study developed a model for estimating the construction period of a road project. The model was developed after a survey of road construction projects implemented in Kenya between the year 2002 and 2011. The estimation of construction period of road projects in Kenya remains largely undeveloped. In practice, the estimation is based on an unclear combination of cost of project, history of implementation of similar projects and the intuition of the estimator who is normally the client’s representative. This estimation process is subjective and inconsistent and is therefore likely to give spurious estimates because it does not adequately take account of many of the factors that may influence the construction speed of road projects. This error is likely to give contract periods that are unrealistic in that they may be too short or too long. Additionally, the error may lead to wrong assessments of project performance reflecting time overruns that are not real. The objectives of this study were to identify the factors that influence construction period in road projects in Kenya and develop a statistical model for estimating this period. Quantitative data were collected using a survey questionnaire and analysis carried out using the Statistical Programme for Social Sciences (SPSS for Windows, version 16). The statistical procedures included descriptives (Measures of Central tendency, dispersion and distribution), correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. These procedures were chosen because they were considered most appropriate to test the research hypothesis identified and hence achieve the aim and objectives of the study.