Energy Demand Model for Road Transport of Petroleum Products between Nairobi and Mombasa in Kenya

Abstract

The issue of analyzing and predicting transport energy demand is crucial for the government and industry stakeholders. Planners and decision-makers use models to determine local conformity and areas of development. However not much has been done to estimate the transport energy demand and expected demand trends in the coming years of enhanced economic growth leading to the Kenya Vision 2030. This was largely due to lack of necessary data, appropriate models, qualified personnel and required institutions. The goal of this research is to develop an energy demand model for estimating energy demand for road cargo transport for the distribution of petroleum products between Nairobi and Mombasa in Kenya. The model can be used to play a powerful role in shaping policy by identifying emerging problems, pinpointing areas for energy savings and providing a context within which to judge alternative policy option. To achieve this goal the study used a number of methodologies including: a field survey where data was collected using structured random questionnaires, observations, face to face interviews and focal group discussions. The secondary data were obtained from government departments. Both were analyzed using SPSS11.5 while C++ was used built the functions on Excel spread sheet and presented inform of graphs and simulation. This research used the data obtained from field survey to determine the amount of fuel consumed annually for distribution of petroleum products. Three models were developed namely fuel consumption model, trip production model and energy demand model. The models established that if the trucks can be driven at an average speed of 70 to 75 kilometres per hour in Kenya maximum energy savings can be achieved. Finally the study recommends other models to be developed in the other roads and towns.