Actionable Risk Communication for Terrorism Risk Preparedness among Residents of Nairobi City County

Abstract

Terrorism risk preparedness deters terrorist activities, reduces the likelihood of successful insurgent’s operations and lowers morbidity and mortality rates during terror attacks. While terrorism risk preparedness reduces the impact of attacks, optimism bias stemming from the perceived low probability of such events often leads to public complacency, weakening the effectiveness of traditional risk communication. Actionable risk communication addresses this gap by translating complex risk information into clear behavioral instructions. The study examines how information attributes, source attributes, the choice of communication channels, and strategies influence terrorism risk preparedness and assesses how risk perception moderates this relationship. The study is grounded in a theoretical framework integrating the Actionable Risk Communication Model, the Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model, and the Social Amplification of Risk Model (SARM) and employs a mixed-methods approach, combining a survey, content analysis, key informant interviews, and observation. A quantitative sample of 640 respondents was selected using multistage stratified purposeful random sampling from various university campuses, shopping malls, public markets, and bus termini in Nairobi City County. Qualitative data were collected through observation, content analysis, and key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, cross-verified with qualitative data, interpreted, and explained through a narrative report. Findings reveal varying levels of risk awareness and preparedness among residents with significant gaps, including, inadequate educational and communication campaigns and low credibility for official sources. Additionally, there are significant vulnerabilities in vigilance, surveillance, and access controls at densely populated informal locations such as matatu termini and public markets compared to formal locations such as university campuses and shopping malls. The study recommends improving terrorism preparedness through community education, multi-stakeholder collaboration, and tailored communication strategies using credible sources and multiple media channels. Academically, it contributes to the limited body of research on urban African contexts and advances theory by adapting established models to Nairobi's socio-economic realities. Practically, it offers guidance for policymakers, emergency responders, and communication professionals to build community resilience through more effective and trusted risk messaging.