KENYA POWER SECTOR DEVELOPNET SCENARIOS – ANALYSIS USING LONG RANGE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE PLANNING SYSTEM

Abstract

Energy is universally recognized as one of the most fundamental inputs for social and economicdevelopment. Currently, the estimated access to electricity in Kenya stands at 63%. The Government hasa plan to increase this accessibility to 100% and achieve 100% connectivity by 2030 throughimplementation of the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP), extension of the grid andestablishment of mini-grids in areas where extension of grid is not economically feasible. This paper seeks to analyze three possible power development scenarios in relation to their Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and cost implications. The LCPDP forms the reference scenario, it has a supply mixof hydro, geothermal, thermal (including Gas turbine and Medium Speed Diesel Plants), nuclear, windand coal power plants. The second scenario has a supply mix of hydro, geothermal, thermal (Gas TurbinePlants only), nuclear, wind and coal power plants. The third scenario will have a supply mix of hydro,geothermal, thermal (Gas Turbine Plants), nuclear, wind, coal power plants and 5% small renewable (small-hydro, solar-PV and biomass plants) as non-dispatchable plants. The expansion plan is modeledfrom 2012 -2030 using the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP). The demand forecastfor the domestic, industrial, commercial and street lighting sectors is carried out to simulate how thepower demand is expected to change from an estimated peak demand of 1300MW to 7500MW in 2030.The results from the reference scenario show that it’s the most economically viable option of generatingpower but with the highest carbon footprint. The second scenario if implemented would lead to a GHGsaving of 2.2million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, at a cost of $45.6/tonne CO2 eq. The third scenariowould lead to a GHG saving of 6.2million tonnes of CO2eq, at a cost of $8.6/tonne CO2eq. Therefore third scenario has the greatest saving in terms of the GHG emissions and would be the ideal path for Kenya to follow in terms of energy security and mitigation of the adverse effects brought about by climatechange.